Castries, Saint Lucia – Tourism Minister Dr. Ernest Hilaire on Monday defended the integrity of Saint Lucia’s 2023 tourism expenditure figures, following concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the accuracy of the country’s visitor spending data.
Addressing reporters at a press briefing, Dr. Hilaire explained that the IMF’s findings were largely tied to the methodology used in 2023 to collect expenditure data. Due to adjustments made during the COVID-19 pandemic, Saint Lucia transitioned from face-to-face interviews to online surveys administered through the electronic ED card system. Only travelers who consented to receive promotional material were invited to complete expenditure surveys, resulting in a significantly smaller sample size.
“The methodology we used meant that only a subset of travelers was surveyed, which increases the margin of error — but it does not constitute data manipulation,” Dr. Hilaire emphasized.
The IMF’s 2023 Article IV Consultation cited several concerns:
The response rate for Saint Lucia’s Visitor Expenditure Survey dropped sharply to just 1.3% of stay-over visitors, compared to 18% in prior years.
The reliance on email and QR code surveys introduced sample bias, underrepresenting non-all-inclusive hotel guests.
Cross-checking Saint Lucia’s travel export figures against U.S. data suggested potential overestimation of total travel exports by up to 14%, and U.S. visitor spending may have been nearly 25% higher than reality.
The IMF warned that such overstatements could distort Saint Lucia’s economic outlook and urged the country to return to face-to-face visitor surveys by June 2025.
Dr. Hilaire, while acknowledging the IMF’s concerns, pointed out that discrepancies between Saint Lucia’s tourism expenditure estimates and foreign assessments are not new. He cited 2019, under Dominic Fedee’s tenure, when face-to-face interviews were still conducted, yet Saint Lucia’s reported visitor spending was still significantly higher than American assessments.
“If in 2019 the figures were even more inflated compared to American assessments, were they manipulating data then?” Hilaire asked. “The IMF report shows these disparities existed even before the shift to online surveys.”
He explained that in June 2023, Saint Lucia adopted a hybrid model, combining both face-to-face interviews and online surveys to address the sample size issue and strengthen the reliability of tourism data.
On transparency regarding the Citizenship by Investment Programme (CIP), Dr. Hilaire reiterated that while government remains committed to full disclosure, privacy obligations must be respected. He announced that the CIP’s Annual Report and operational audit will be made public by early June.
Despite the scrutiny over the 2023 expenditure figures, Dr. Hilaire expressed strong optimism about the sector’s future. He highlighted record-breaking visitor arrivals and hotel occupancy rates in 2023, and forecast even greater growth in 2024, boosted by the upcoming opening of Secrets Resorts and other tourism developments.
“Attempts to tarnish the achievements of our tourism sector simply won’t succeed,” Dr. Hilaire asserted. “The numbers, the growth, and the energy we are seeing on the ground speak for themselves.”
